Picking a college football upset is one of the most fun and high-paying experiences in the betting world. While teams like Alabama and Ohio State will probably always be dominant, there are always some shocking games that you can bank on if you know where to put your cash. Here’s a simple guide to picking potential college upsets and making money on your next betting venture. Note: we can’t guarantee that you’ll win any bets you take using this method.
Find Overrated Teams First
The college football ranking system isn’t always perfect (if you ask some people, it is always incredibly inaccurate!), and many teams get highly ranked due to their reputation in previous seasons. This means that a mediocre team that probably doesn’t deserve a high ranking may get put up in the poll and blow by easy teams early before finally meeting up with some real competition later in the season.
According to our research, teams like Texas A&M, USC, Pitt, and Cincinnati are amongst the most overrated teams in college football for 2022. Pay attention to these teams and see when they finally play real competition. The early games of the season are likely to be silly blowouts by these overrated teams, so make sure you watch for when they play real competition: specifically potentially underrated teams.
Spot When They Play Underrated Teams
Just like many teams are overrated, many more are underrated. Remember: the college ranking system is not science but based on polling by sports writers around the nation. As a result, teams with a high profile often get ranked better than more deserving teams that don’t get a lot of media attention. For example, Nevada has one of the best quarterback prospects in the nation right now but gets fewer votes.
Of course, people in and around the university may know they are good and vote them higher in the poll. But people in New York or Maine simply won’t know about this team and may not vote them as highly. Beyond Nevada, other teams projected to do better than expected include Northwestern, Washington, and even Ole Miss. The latter team is coming off a 5-5 season but could turn heads with a much-improved roster.
Find a Good Spread
Now, here’s one of the most important things about finding a good college upset; knowing a reasonable spread. You might not pick an unlikely team that successfully beats a better opponent, but maybe you can find one that beats the spread. The spread is how many points one team is likely to beat the other by. So, if a losing team beats the spread by scoring more points than expected, you might win a bet.
For example, if Alabama has a 25-point spread against Ole Miss and beats them by 14 points, you would still win the bet even if Alabama won! That kind of betting doesn’t always necessarily pay as highly as just outright picking the winning team or even doing same-day parlays and picking multiple winning teams. However, it is much easier to beat the spread than to pick a team that truly upsets bigger and better opponents.
You Can Do This
There’s no guarantee that you’ll pick the next great upset this college football season. After all, they’re called upsets for a reason: they’re not likely to happen. However, a careful understanding of the ranking system and the unique ways it works can give you a better insight into some of these potentially shocking wins, making your college football predictions a bit more likely to hit.